Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
